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Dell’Oro forecasts a 2% decline in international telecom capex in 2026, adopted by modest development at a CAGR of round 1% via 2030
In sum – what to know:
Capex set to say no – World telecom capex is anticipated to fall 2% in 2026, reflecting a extra cautious near-term funding surroundings.
Networks meet present demand – Present infrastructure is enough for present visitors ranges, lowering the urgency for brand new large-scale spending.
Effectivity earlier than subsequent cycle – Capital depth is declining, however funding is anticipated to rise once more towards 2030 with the transition to 6G.
World telecom capital expenditure is anticipated to say no in 2026 as operators undertake a extra cautious funding method, at the same time as long-term demand linked to synthetic intelligence (AI) continues to construct, in response to new information from Dell’Oro Group.
The agency estimates that telecom capex remained broadly flat in 2025 in nominal U.S. greenback phrases throughout roughly 50 service suppliers, representing round 80% of world spending. This stability got here regardless of a 4% year-on-year improve in telecom gear revenues, supported partially by cloud suppliers, which Dell’Oro estimates accounted for roughly half of that development.
The connection between capex and gear spending remained comparatively balanced throughout key segments, together with broadband entry, optical transport, cellular core, radio entry networks (RAN), and repair supplier routing and switching.
Nevertheless, this equilibrium is anticipated to shift barely within the close to time period. Dell’Oro forecasts a 2% decline in international telecom capex in 2026, adopted by modest development at a compound annual fee of round 1% via 2030. Over the identical interval, service revenues are projected to extend by roughly 2% yearly, regularly bettering capital effectivity metrics.
“We’re seeing an fascinating dynamic between long-term optimism and near-term visibility,” mentioned Stefan Pongratz, vp at Dell’Oro Group. “Operators stay optimistic concerning the long-term community imaginative and prescient, notably as AI drives new demand, however within the brief time period they’re taking a extra cautious stance, with many planning to average capex.”
Extra feedback shared by Pongratz with RCR Wi-fi Information present additional context for this cautious outlook. “The near-term warning is pushed by demand – the community is in a superb state from a protection and capability perspective to handle current wants,” he mentioned. This means that, for a lot of operators, present infrastructure is enough to help visitors ranges with out instant large-scale funding.
Dell’Oro initiatives that the capex-to-revenue ratio will method 14% by 2029, whereas wi-fi capital depth is anticipated to fall to round 11% over the identical interval—down considerably from peak ranges seen through the top of 5G deployment cycles.
“We count on operators to proceed bettering their capital depth ratios over the following 4 years and to start out ticking again up in 2030, when 6G commences,” Pongratz informed RCR Wi-fi Information.
The findings level to a transitional section for the telecom trade. Whereas AI-driven purposes and long-term community evolution proceed to help optimistic sentiment, operators are prioritizing effectivity and returns within the close to time period.