What Occurs When US Electrical energy Demand Craters?

Join CleanTechnica’s Weekly Substack for Zach and Scott’s in-depth analyses and excessive stage summaries, join our day by day publication, and/or observe us on Google Information!

CleanTechnica reader BigWu just lately introduced an attention-grabbing thought experiment to my thoughts. He introduced up the ramifications for fossil gasoline energy sources if the financial system crashes and electrical energy demand drops kind of commensurately.

“We’re about to see US electrical energy demand crater as a result of malignant and willful ignorance of our ‘leaders’ tanking the US financial system,” he postulated. “The upside is that this practically ensures a collapse in fossil fueled era as photo voltaic, wind, hydro, geothermal, and nuclear can simply out-bid fossil turbines.”

It’s an excellent level, however let’s simply clarify why. With electrical energy demand rising, in fact, we merely depend on constructed energy vegetation and regularly add to them — with 92.5% of these new ones coming from renewables, principally solar energy, now. That can transition the grid to wash, renewable vitality over time, however you kind of have to attend for previous, polluting, fossil fueled energy vegetation to age out and retire.

Nevertheless, if electrical energy demand drops, then some current energy vegetation clearly should be shot off, or their electrical energy not used. To get all the way down to the fundamentals, with energy vegetation, you may have fastened prices (which incorporates the price to construct the facility plant) and marginal prices (which Investopedia defines as “the prices related to producing an extra unit of output”). What are the marginal prices for photo voltaic and wind energy vegetation? Nearly nothing. There’s no gasoline value, since sunshine and the wind are free. What are the prices for a coal or fuel energy plant? Appreciable, since these fuels are usually not free.

So, if an influence plant must be shut down as a result of there simply isn’t as a lot demand as earlier than, it’s virtually undoubtedly going to be a fossil gasoline energy plant, and it undoubtedly shouldn’t be a photo voltaic or wind energy plant.

As such, even higher than having renewable vitality energy vegetation present 100% of latest capability every year is having electrical energy demand shrink, which instantly results in the fossil gasoline energy fleet shrinking.

In fact, there are “good” and “unhealthy” methods to attain declining electrical energy demand. Larger vitality effectivity can convey down electrical energy demand, however the trigger BigWu is referencing is a powerful financial downturn from Donald Trump and his corrupt, brainless crew screwing up the US financial system by way of excessive tariffs, DOGE cuts, extremist immigration insurance policies, and total mismanagement of the federal authorities. Nobody actually desires their financial of economic scenario to worsen, and that’s what would occur for many of us if the US financial system crashed, however the silver lining of that scenario could possibly be accelerated retirement of fossil gasoline energy vegetation. Furthermore, it might doubtless be among the oldest, most polluting, most inefficient energy vegetation that will be shut down first.

Nobody would accuse Donald Trump of being a pro-environment, pro-climate, pro-human well being president, but when he really despatched the US into an financial collapse — the likes of which we’ve by no means seen — he might find yourself being one of many presidents most useful for slowing international heating and local weather disaster. Who is aware of? We will see.

Notice: That is my weekly column for CleanTechnica’s new Substack channel. You may assist CleanTechnica’s work financially by turning into a paying subscriber there. Thanks to everybody who has jumped in and grow to be a paying subscriber in our first week there!